ECONOMICS

Back in February, economists and strategists were stunned by the February UMichigan consumer sentiment survey which indicated an absolutely ridiculous surge in 1Yr inflation expectations (from 3.3% to 4.3%), but not because everyone expects more inflation but because Democrats now expect something approaching hyperinflation at 5.1%, even as Republicans expect 0.0% inflation in 1 year (and how the average of these two adds up to 4.3%, maybe socialist UMich "professor" Justin (more…)

One month ago, when we first  realized just how much fat Elon Musk's DOGE was slashing from the government money laundering apparatus, we made an observation: so much (deep state laundered) money was about to come out of the economy (one way or another), the US would enter a recession, first in Washington DC (something which others such as Michael Hartnett have since confirmed) and then across the US.

We were surprised at how much pushback we got, especially from supporters of (more…)

After a year of modest, barely perceptible inflation, China's CPI tumbled back far more than expected to fall below zero for the first time in 13 months, an assessment skewed by seasonal distortions but also a sign of deflationary pressures persisting in the economy. Here is the summary:

• CPI: -0.7% yoy (-3.5% mom annualized*) in February vs. Bloomberg consensus: -0.4% yoy; January: +0.5% yoy (-1.7% mom annualized).
  • Food: -3.3% yoy in February (-13.1% mom annualized*) vs. (more…)