ECONOMICS

Authored by Peter Earle via TheDailyEconomy.org,

As we mark five years since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, many headlines trumpet the resilience of the US economy: unemployment is low, GDP has returned to growth, and markets have rebounded. But beneath the surface-level indicators lies a more complicated and sobering picture. 

A close examination of key economic metrics reveals that in several important areas, the US economy has not fully recovered from the effects of both the (more…)

While it is as stale as 3 month old milk, and therefor completely useless especially ahead of tomorrow's personal income/core PCE report, moments ago the BLS reported its 2nd revision to Q4 GDP which was revised up to 2.4% compared to the second est. of 2.3%, and above the median consensus of 2.3% (+2.2% to +2.6%) from 55 economists. The final Q4 print was down from 3.1% in Q3. The increase, however, wasn't due to stronger consumption (this declined from 4.2% to 4.0%, below the 4.2% (more…)

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow economic forecasting tool predicts an imminent recession, which is fueling investor angst. However, the New York and St. Louis Feds’ Nowcast economic forecasts predict continued economic growth in the first quarter.

Confused?

This article explores the GDPNow and Nowcast models to understand the recent forecast divergences. A better understanding of the two models helps us (more…)