ECONOMICS

Entering 2025, Germany's economic situation had never been worse: following a 6th consecutive GDP contraction in Q4, the country which was once Europe's growth dynamo, has contracted for 6 consecutive quarters, the longest recessionary stretch in modern German history (since its 1989 reunification).

But if anyone had hoped that the recent German pro-debt "revolution" in which Berlin eliminated its long-standing "debt brake" and unleashed an unlimited, (more…)

By now it has become abundantly clear (and if it isn't, the openly biased media has certainly made it its purpose to highlight over and over) what the downside is to the US from Trump's ongoing trade war against the world, but especially China: sliding markets, rising rates, dumping dollar. The economy has so far proven resilient, with hard data surprising to the upside for the past 2 months (perhaps as a result of pre-buying ahead of tariffs), even as sentiment (among Democrats) has (more…)

Sometimes, especially when stocks are tumbling, bond yields are soaring and the dollar looks like it is about to lose its reserve currency (and be replaced by what: the yuan? the euro? the turkish lira?), it is easy to forget what is the driving motive behind Trump's trade war. And in a nutshell, it is this chart: US debt which at $37 trillion is unsustainable, and which is growing at a pace which everyone – not just the bipartisan CBO, but also the Fed, the IMF, Elon Musk, the (more…)