Since December's Trump-optimism-driven surge in Leading Economic Indicators (the first since last February), The Conference Board's headline index has decelerated rapidly with March data released today plunging 0.7% MoM – the biggest drop since October 2023…
Consumer Sentiment and Stock Prices were the biggest negative contributors, while Building Permits and Jobless Claims were the biggest positive contributors…
That dragged the total index level down to its lowest since October 2016…
“The US LEI for March pointed to slowing economic activity ahead,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.
The LEI’s six-month growth rate ticked down in March, but remained well above the recession threshold
So the economy is doomed (ish) because stocks and sentiment are down… because investors are pricing in a doomed economy…?
Perhaps the word 'leading' in this index is misleading…
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