ECONOMICS

A recession is imminent…

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model  – forecasting US economic growth – just downgraded its estimate of Q1 2025 GDP growth (or lack of it) from +2.3% to -1.5%…

After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth fell from -0.41 percentage points to -3.70 percentage points while the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption (more…)

Authored by Frank Shostack via Mises.org,

According to the Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), money is something decided by the state. The MMT regards money as a token. For instance, when an individual places a coat in the cloakroom of a theater, he receives a tin disc or a paper receipt. This receipt or a disc is a proof that the individual is entitled to demand the return of his coat.

According to the MMT, the material used to manufacture the tokens is irrelevant—it can be gold, (more…)

After Friday's (tariff-front-running-import-surge-driven) tumble in Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW accelerated growth scare anxiety in bonds (and stocks), this morning we see US Manufacturing PMI surge back into expansion (52.7 – better than the expected 51.6) – its strongest level of implied growth since June 2022 (despite the slide in US Macro Surprise data over the past month).

The ISM Manufacturing survey, on the other hand, disappointed, falling from 50.9 to 50.3 (50.8 exp).. (more…)