After Friday's (tariff-front-running-import-surge-driven) tumble in Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW accelerated growth scare anxiety in bonds (and stocks), this morning we see US Manufacturing PMI surge back into expansion (52.7 – better than the expected 51.6) – its strongest level of implied growth since June 2022 (despite the slide in US Macro Surprise data over the past month).
The ISM Manufacturing survey, on the other hand, disappointed, falling from 50.9 to 50.3 (50.8 exp)...
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood, it was ugly with new orders tumbling as prices paid surged to the highest since June 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, notes that there are signs this surge in growth expectations will be short-lived:
Optimism fades:
And inflation fears are spreading:
Not a pretty picture… Stagflation it is, for now!
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