ECONOMICS

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,

It’s time once more to increase vigilance for a US recession.

Soft, survey data is starting to deteriorate, while hard data is already fragile. Expectations of a downturn are currently low, but they could quickly swing higher.

Stocks – which experience their worst drawdowns in recessions – are not priced for such an outcome, while yields are biased lower in the coming months.

S curves are nature’s approximation of (more…)

Billionaire Barry Sternlicht, Founder, Chairman and CEO of Starwood Capital Group has issued an ominous warning about America's regional banks, which he says will fail at a rate of 'one or two' per week.

Speaking with CNBC on Tuesday, Sternlicht says he thinks that primary real estate lenders – community and regional banks – are about to get whacked.

"You're going to see a regional bank fail every day, or not — every week, maybe two a (more…)

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

If people have learned anything from the past few years of Ivy League elites and TV talking heads feeding them economic predictions, I hope they finally understand that the “experts” are usually wrong and that alternative analysts have a far better track record. Whenever establishment economists make a a call the opposite generally turns out to be true.

By extension, alternative economic predictions are usually well ahead of the (more…)