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Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Was there a surge? Or was it a mirage?

A few polls showed slight improvement for Biden immediately after the election.

For example, the New York Times reports Small Shift Toward Biden After Trump Verdict

Recontact Voters

Was this due to the conviction or something else?

This is sampling bias.

Curiously …

It’s easy to spin this however you want. But it is far from clear what, if anything happened.

Let’s discuss The New York Times vs the New York Times.

The New York Times View #1

The New York Times View #2

538 Forecast

538 forecast with Mish comments

538 calls the above its 2024 Election Forecast.

Biden vs. Trump: Who is Leading the Polls?

Reuters asks Biden vs. Trump: Who is leading the polls?

Spotlight Virginia

Newsweek reports Joe Biden Suffers Shock Poll in State Democrats Have Not Lost in 20 years

Post-Conviction Coefficient Virginia Poll June 11-12

In that poll, Trump picked up more votes than he lost post conviction.

And this is before the conviction is overturned, which I expect it will be.

That is only one poll. We should not read too much into it yet. However, Biden is going to have to defend some states Democrats never thought they would have to spend money defending.

Newsweek reports polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight awarded co/efficient 1.1 stars out of three and has given it a transparency score of 3.2 out of 10, raising questions about the reliability of the poll.

OK, what about Fox?

The Wall Street Journal notes “A Fox News Voter Analysis poll of registered voters, conducted from June 1 to 4, also found Biden tied with Trump” in Virginia.

Fox News Polls are done by Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research.

538 gives 2.8 stars out of 3 to Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research. The company was rated 15th out of 277pollsters analyzed.

Key Dates and Events

• June 27 Debate: All eyes will be on Biden. He will not have a teleprompter. Neither will Trump, but Biden shows no ability to think on his feet, confusing names, dates, and facts. This debate will be hosted by CNN.

• July 11 Sentencing: Trump sentencing is coming up. He could be sentenced to prison. My guess no.

• Immediate Appeal: Whatever the sentence, it will be appealed immediately. I strongly believe conviction will be overturned. If the sentence is prison, the appeal resolution may be quicker.

• July 15-18 Republican National Convention: The event is anticipated to potentially bring 50,000 visitors to Milwaukee.

• August 19-22 Democratic National Convention: This will take place in Chicago. There’s a decent chance it could get ugly.

• September 10 Second Debate: Assuming Biden is still standing, the second debate will be on September 10. This one will be hosted by ABC news.

• Tuesday, November 5: Election

The election is now less than five months away.

Models Can’t Think

538 says “Trump wins 51 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election. Biden wins 48 times out of 100.” The missing result is a recount or a tie.

I look at the 538 model and say WTF?

Biden needs to do well in the debates. He rates to lose ground if the Trump conviction is overturned. And anyone watching him knows he might not make it to November. No one has any idea what would happen if Biden were to drop out.

But as it stands, the path for Biden is much narrower than the path for Trump. Yet Nate Silver effectively calls it a dead heat.

538 ignores the path and just looks at polls, despite knowing that support for Trump is historically higher than polls suggest.

History may not be the guide this time. but we need to think Trump may outperform the polls again.

GDPNow Analogy

After slamming the 538 forecast, models have some advantages.

People can overthink things. There is also a tendency to make excuses to believe what you want. That is the benefit to models.

I have been watching the Atlanta Fed GDPNow GDP model for many years.

It cannot think either.

And at the start of every quarter the nowcast can be wildly off. But as data comes in, the model gets more an more accurate. For about eight quarters, the final model forecast has outperformed professional forecasters.

Nate Silver’s 538 model will get better over time after some of those scheduled events happen.

As for now, this thinking person suggests 538 is way off base because it cannot make a judgment on anything but polls. It also seems to underestimate the narrow path Biden has.

If so, it’s a 538 model error to arrive at 51-48 looking ahead to November. T

Trump Found Guilty – a Travesty of Justice for America

On May 30, I wrote Trump Found Guilty – a Travesty of Justice for America

This conviction will be overturned. Put that in your model.

Also note Trump raised nearly $53 million in the 24 hours after his felony conviction, shattering online records for Republicans and helping him close a substantial financial gap with President Biden.

Did any model predict that?