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Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak this afternoon and the big question is how many times will he said the word "patience", "confidence", and/or "we must get Biden re-elected."

Powell has been less hawkish than many of his peers on the FOMC – leaving all doors open for cuts 'at some point' this year, merely needing a little more confidence that they are really winning the inflation war.

The problem is – they are not anymore. As the following chart shows, inflation data has been surprising significantly to the upside for four months… and US macroeconomic data has also been surprising to the upside…

Source: Bloomberg

Neither of which provide any rate-cutting-leg to stand on for Powell and his pals.

Powell's comments today come after Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson suggested this morning that the central bank's key rate may have to remain at its peak for a while to bring down persistently elevated inflation.

Specifically, Jefferson's remarks to a Fed research conference excluded key phrases about gaining "confidence" in lower inflation and then cutting rates, but noted the central bank was facing a strong economy and little recent progress on the pace of price increases.

As Reuters reports, whether or not Powell follows in a similar vein, outside analysts and investors have been steadily marking down the likelihood and timing of Fed rate cuts as policymakers struggle to reconcile a gravity-defying economy with their assessment that monetary policy is "restrictive" and inflation likely on its way down.

The market has made its mind up – slashing expectations for 2024 to just 1.5 rate-cuts (half what The Fed's Dot-Plot is expecting)…

Source: Bloomberg

Of course, Biden has also expressed his opinion that there will be rate-cuts this year (by the election?)…

Will Powell feel the need to reiterate the importance for 'Fed independence' that he was spouting on about in his speech two weeks ago at Stanford Business School…

And finally…

Watch Fed Chair Powell speak live here (due to start at 1315ET):