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Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Trump Leads in 5 Key States, as Young and Nonwhite Voters Express Discontent With Biden according to Nate Cohn at the New York Times.

A Surge in Discontent With Biden

Please consider Trump Leads in 5 Key States by Nate Cohn.

Goodness Gracious

“My goodness gracious, my God. That is a huge lead. No Democrat has lost that state since John Kerry.”

I believe it’s time for a musical tribute interlude.

We now return to our regularly scheduled program.

Emmerson College Polling

Emmerson College reports Trump Holds Edge Over Biden in Seven Key Swing State Polls

Impact of a Guilty Verdict on Independent Voters’ Likelihood to Support Trump

• AZ: 32% more likely, 25% less likely, 43% no impact

• GA: 26% more likely, 32% less likely, 42% no impact

• MI: 26% more likely, 30% less likely, 45% no impact

• NC: 32% more likely, 25% less likely, 43% no impact

• NV: 25% more likely, 32% less likely, 43% no impact

• PA: 31% more likely, 24% less likely, 45% no impact

• WI: 24% more likely, 30% less likely, 47% no impact

Hoot of the Day

Independents in Arizona, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania say a conviction would make it more likely they voted for Trump.

What a hoot!

That’s how much of a farce the trial is.

Biden’s Excuse for Bad Polls

If you need another hoot, I can help. Please note the White House blames the pandemic and Russia for Biden’s dismal swing state poll numbers.

Biden Challenges Trump to a Debate

“Make my day” said Biden to Trump in a Tweet, challenging Trump to a debate. Two debates are set. Trump seeks two more. What just happened?

I discussed the debate on May 15 in Biden Challenges Trump to a Debate, Trump Accepts, Advantage Whom?

Biden’s Extremely Big Bet

Even the Washington Post can spot Biden’s desperation.

Please consider Biden’s Extremely Big Bet

Important Issues 18-29 Year-Olds

Top Issues

Two of the top three issues are inflation and housing. They are very related. Rent has gone up at least 0.4 percent for 32 months, nearly three years.

Home prices are at record highs and mortgage rates are above 7.0 percent making housing very unaffordable for those who want to buy a home.

New York Times Swing State Poll Detail

The Shocker

18-29 year-olds turned out en masse for Biden four years ago. Trump now leads age groups 18-29 and 30-44.

And it’s not just the youth vote. According to Pew, Biden captured 92 percent of the black vote in 2020. Now it’s 49-14-11 (Biden, Trump, Kennedy).

If these percentages hold, Trump is going to win every swing state plus a few more not yet presumed to be in the ballpark.

Spotlight Blacks

On April 12, the Kansas Reflector commented on Black Support for Biden.

Generational Homeownership Rates

Home ownership rates courtesy of Apartment List

People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election

On April 20, before the latest polls, and before I found the above Kansas Reflector post, I commented People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election

Young voters are angry about rent, angry over home prices, and angry over mortgage rates. That is reflected in the polls.

Economists still don’t get it. They think the economy is doing great.

If you are an asset holder, the economy might seem great (see Dear Jerome Powell, Is Everything Under Control? Spotlight Gold and Silver).

But the 36 percent of people who rent, mainly young voters and blacks, see things differently. And they will decide the election, for Trump, if the polls stay anywhere close to where they are.