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While mainstream polling has Donald Trump and Kamala Harris "essentially tied" across seven key battleground states, betting markets – which can be more accurate than public polls according to Rutgers statistics professor Harry Crane, have shown a massive and recent surge for Trump.

Donald Trump at an event, Aug. 15, 2024, in Bedminster, N.J., left, and Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris at a campaign event in Raleigh, N.C., Aug. 16, 2024. (AP Photo)

According to Polymarket, late last week Trump began surging in Michigan, while picking up a Monday bump in Arizona and Pennsylvania.

According to The Hill, Harris' lack of traction with unionized blue-collar workers 'has emerged as one of her biggest challenges' when it comes to winning key states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania.

"Trump’s tariffs and get-rid-of-the-immigrants [message] is a very attractive kind of proposition to people who feel like their jobs were taken abroad, and Trump gets some credit from union guys for breaking with the free-trade consensus," said progressive activist Bob Borosage, who says Harris needs to spend more time promoting her economic agenda to working-class voters. (lol)

We noted the shift in Michigan late last week, which continued through the weekend.

Even the NY Times notes that Harris' edge in Pennsylvania in mainstream polling could be fake news, as "The poll average could even be so stable in part because many pollsters are using heavy-handed statistical techniques that reduce the variance of their results from poll to poll but that increase the risk of systematic errors," adding "Systematic polling errors — in which one side does better than expected, across the board — have been common in recent cycles."

Meanwhile back at the ranch, Ipsos polling from late last week of the seven swing states reveal Trump doing better than Harris in various key metrics.

And here's Polymarket…