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Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

In case of a tie, the House of Representatives would decide. This favors Trump. But what are the odds? I make a guess…

The above map is not contrived or convoluted. It is the current state of affairs except for Nebraska and a small lead for Harris in Nevada, reversed in the above map. However….

Please note Republicans Push to Change Nebraska’s Electoral System

Time Expires in Maine

Maine, which operates on the same system, have threatened to do the same.

However, time has expired for Maine to make the change.

If Nebraska acts, Trump wins on 269 but Harris would need 270.

Advantage Trump

Breaking an Electoral College Tie

In the House, each state delegation (not representative) would get one vote, with the presidency going to whoever wins a majority of state delegations.

Republicans currently control 26 of the 50 House delegations.

Regardless of who controls the House next year, Republicans are a strong favorite to remain in control of 26 House delegations.

This Has Happened Before

The Center for Politics discusses Breaking an Electoral College Tie

What Are the Odds?

Nate Silver and others have concocted bizarre scenarios to arrive at 269-269 math. The above map is not bizarre. It is currently one of the most likely scenarios.

Most likely scenario does not mean probable. There are thousands of scenarios, most of which are near-zero probability outcomes (for example Trump or Harris winning every state).

Nate Silver has Harris’ odds of winning Pennsylvania at 53.7%, Michigan at 61.8%, Wisconsin at 55.4%, and Trump winning Nevada at 47.4%.

If we assume every other state is as projected, the odds of 269-269 tie are 0.537 * 0.618 * 0.554 * 0.474 = 0.0871.

That would be an 8.7 percent chance. But It is not quite that simple because the other states are not guaranteed, reducing the odds.

Keep the above assumptions but factor in Arizona with Trump’s odds of winning at 64.5 percent and the tie odds drop to 5.7 percent. Also factor in Georgia the odds drop to 3.51 percent. And finally, factor in North Carolina and the odds drop further to about 2.3 percent.

But a correlation factor increases the odds depending on what assumptions we make. For example, if we assume Harris wins Wisconsin, her odds of winning Michigan and Pennsylvania rise because the states are similar in voting patterns.

Nate Silver has the deadlock odds at 0.3 percent.

Look for Silver’s odds of a tie to jump 8-fold or more. My crude calculation suggests the odds are between 2 and 3 percent but this can easily rise (or fall) over time.