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Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Blacks constitute only 14 percent of the voting age population, but the swings toward Trump are so huge they could decide the election.

WSJ Swing State Poll, anecdotes in blue by Mish

According to a Wall Street Journal Swing State Poll, blacks, especially black males are abandoning Biden in huge numbers.

That’s an 18 percentage point swing, minimum, for black males, if the national results and the swing state voting is similar.

By confirmed, I mean those who said they intended to vote for Trump.

The gap is even larger if we factor in undecided voters. Biden is down by a massive 30 percentage points vs 2020. I suspect most in that group will end up voting for Biden, but a fair number will vote for RFK, not vote at all, or vote for Trump.

Among women, Trump has picked up five percentage points while Biden is potentially down 16 percentage points.

Powerful Message

Remove the words Black and Hispanic and it’s a strong message to everyone.

Black Eligible Voter Population

Turnout by Race

Image from brennancenter.org

Election Math

In the last election, voting turnout from Blacks was 63 percent. That would be 0.63 * 34.4 million or 21.67 million total votes.

In the last election about 9 percent of them nationally voted for Trump (12 percent men and 6 percent women averaged to 9 percent), thus 91 percent for Biden. That’s roughly 19.72 million votes for Biden and 1.95 million for Trump, a net of +17.77 million to Biden.

Now we are looking at about 20 percent going to Trump.

That’s 17.34 million votes to Biden and 4.33 million to Trump for a net of 13.01 million votes to Biden.

Net-to-net, my current projection is a net loss of 4.76 million blacks vs 2020 for Biden.

This was an interesting mental exercise, but it is already reflected in the swing state polls (or should be if the poll is properly weighted) so don’t double count!

What Will Decide the Election?

New Geography claims EVs will decide the election. That’s a reason, but it’s well down my list. What about yours?

On April 7, I asked If Biden Loses the Election, What Will Be the Top Reason?

The CPI Rose Sharply in March

The CPI rose 0.4 percent in March. Rent is up another 0.4 percent in March with gasoline up 1.7 percent. Together, the pair was about half of the total rise.

CPI data from the BLS, chart by Mish

On April 10, I noted The CPI Rose Sharply in March Led by Shelter and Gasoline

Q: Who is most impacted by sharply rising rent?
A: Blacks and younger voters

Here’s the deal according to the National Association of Realtors.

If the Fed Cuts Rates Before the Election, Does Biden or Trump Benefit More?

I also discuss home ownership in my Q&A If the Fed Cuts Rates Before the Election, Does Biden or Trump Benefit More?

Meanwhile, please note that on that hot CPI report 30-year mortgage rates shot up to 7.37 percent.

Are You Better Off Now Than Four Years Ago?

Finally, please consider my question Fact Check: Are You Better Off Now Than Four Years Ago?

Renters, especially blacks and young voters with few assets are likely to say no.

This fully explains all of the polls. Yet Biden and all the economists still cannot figure out why so many people are miserable.

My base case is Trump will win the election as huge percentages of Blacks and young voters drop support for Biden.