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Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Mike McDonnell deflates the GOP hope for a Nebraska electoral college winner-take-all scenario. This could be extremely important…

Image courtesy of the Silver Bulletin, anecdotes mine.

The Blue Wall Plus the Blue Dot

If Harris were to win the three Blue Wall States of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and Trump were to win the states he is ahead in, plus Nevada, there would be a 269-269 electoral college tie, IF Nebraska was a winner-take-all take.

Based on House tiebreaker rules Trump would then win. Effectively, this would mean Harris needs 270 to win but Trump only 269.

Democrats Will Hold the Blue Dot

The Nebraska Examiner reports State Sen. Mike McDonnell deflates GOP hopes for Nebraska winner-take-all in 2024.

Political Calculus

McDonnell was a Democrat, turned Republican. I suspect he will now run for Mayor of Omaha.

Maine has run out of time to eliminate the Red Dot. Nebraska Governor Jim Pillen ran into a filibuster.

Nate Silver has Trump’s odds of winning NE-2 at 18 percent.

With that, it is very hard to get a 269-269 tie.

Mathematical Odds

I discussed the odds of a tie in The Odds of an Electoral College Tie Are About to Soar, Who Would Win?

I arrived at 2-3 percent currently. But if the Blue Wall broke hard for Harris, and Nevada for hard for Trump (not that unlikely), the odds of a tie could have gotten to the low double digits.

It’s still possible to concoct a tie, but none of the possibilities make any sense.

If Harris wins the Blue Wall plus the normal Blue states, she would win 270 to 268.

A Blue Dot turned Red would have made that outcome 269 to 269 and rules are such that right now, Trump would win ties.

Take Heart Republicans, Mark Zandi Says Harris Will Win

Yesterday, I commented Take Heart Republicans, Mark Zandi Says Harris Will Win

Mark Zandi is the near-perfect contrarian indicator. I am wondering if anyone is better.