Blog

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Trump is ahead in the latest poll. Younger voters leave the Biden camp. James Carville has a meltdown.

Trump Maintains Lead Over Biden

A CNN poll shows Trump maintains lead over Biden in 2024 matchup as views on their presidencies diverge

Biden with his energy mandates, flouting of the supreme court, radical tax proposals, slave reparations, and the desire to pack the courts is now considered the greater threat to democracy.

The Economy

Other Issues

Impressions

Carville Meltdown

Question of the Day

Do young people really want another old white man yelling at them to vote Democrat?

Q&A on Israel

Mish: “Votes that would have gone to Biden, don’t go to Trump, but they vanish (no vote)” or adding today, go to Kennedy or Jill Stein.

My opinion expressed yesterday is exactly what James Carville is having a meltdown over toady.

Swing State Poll Shows Black Voters Abandoning Biden In Huge Numbers

WSJ Swing State Poll, anecdotes in blue by Mish

On April 12, I commented Swing State Poll Shows Black Voters Abandoning Biden In Huge Numbers

Younger Voters and Blacks Disatisfied

According to the CNN poll, 61% of those younger than 45 say they are dissatisfied.

Younger voters and blacks when overwhelmingly for Biden in 2020. Trump has huge pickups in these groups.

People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election

Immigration won’t decide the election. Polls have not yet captured what will. This may come as a surprise, but the top issue housing. More explicitly, it’s shelter costs.

Generational Homeownership Rates

Home ownership rates courtesy of Apartment List

Who Are the Renters?

The answer is younger voters and blacks.

Generation Z homeownership is dramatically lower than the home ownership rate of millennials.

And according to the National Association of Realtors, the homeownership rate among Black Americans is 44 percent whereas for White Americans it’s 72.7 percent.

That’s the largest Black-White homeownership rate gap in a decade.

Home Prices Hit New Record High

Case-Shiller, OER and CPI data from St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish

The latest Case-Shiller housing data shows home prices hit a new record high. Adding insults and costs, the 30-year mortgage rate ended last week at 7.50 percent

Youth Poll

On April 20, I commented People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election

Q: What is it that young voters really have on their minds?
A: Rent

Many with rent as their top concern will switch to Trump. They are fed up with rising inflation. Rent is up at least 0.4 percent per month for 30 months.

Young voters propelled Biden over the top in 2020. Things look very different today. Many voters who do not like either Trump or Biden will sit this election out.

Carville’s rant does not change these issues.