Blog

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The EU has launched an Excessive Debt Proceeding against France. It won’t stop there.

Debt Proceedings

Please note the EU Rebukes France, Italy and Others Over Excessive Debt.

EU’s Golden Rules

Snap Elections

French President Emmanuel Macron was hammered in the European Parliamentary elections as expected in this corner, and generally elsewhere.

Winners: The Far Right

Losers: Renew Europe (Macron), and the Greens.

The response by Macron caught everyone off guard. He dissolved parliament and called for snap elections.

On June 9, I commented Marine Le Pen Set for Record Win, Macron Calls Snap French Election

Sudden Procedures

I fail to see how this does anything but aid Le Pen in the upcoming parliamentary election.

However, if Macron is clobbered, Jordan Bardella, the leader of Rassemblement National (RN, National Rally, Marine Le Pen’s party), may emerge as Prime Minister.

An Act of Trust?

Yeah right.

If Macron is blasted again, he is likely to transfer the problem to RN to fix. That is Macron’s real gambit, not this BS about trust.

Macron is ineligible to run again, so he is making a calculated move. It makes sense if you think about it in these terms.

How Does the Election Work?

Politico Explains: French members of parliament are not elected on the basis of proportional representation, but instead through a complicated two-round vote across 577 constituencies where local dynamics play a big role.

By lead a government Politico means become Prime Minister.

It may be in the best long term interest of Bardella to leave the fiscal issues to Macron for the near future.

No one wants to take the blame for the impending crash.

See how complicated this political jockeying is? It sure as hell has nothing to do with trust.

And that’s not all.

Jews for Le Pen

Please note France’s Jews Consider the Unthinkable: Voting for a Party With an Antisemitic Past

Long Term Fiscal Issues

In addition to the Excessive Debt Proceedings against many countries, every EU county has defense spending issues, climate spending issues, and demographic issues as shown in the lead chart.

The lead chart is from the ECB report Longer-Term Challenges for Fiscal Policy in the Euro Area

As you can see, it’s a mess in may areas. Here are a few of them.

Fiscal Costs of Ageing Societies

Fiscal Costs of the End of the “Peace Dividend”

Macron wants an EU army and more support for Ukraine. How’s that supposed to happen?

Fiscal Effects of Climate Change

Cumulative Impact – Lead Chart

Hoot of the Day

To achieve a government debt-to-GDP ratio of 60 percent, EU countries will have to reduce spending or raise taxes by 2 percent of GDP, on average, every year for 46 years.

That also presumes no recessions or other emergencies in that timeframe. And this is supposed to be a serious proposal.

Let’s just say it’s not going to happen. But these clowns are likely to try, if for no other reason than punish Le Pen.

Meanwhile, Back in the States

In case you missed it, please consider Why Angry Renters Will Decide the Election, Take II

Economists say wages are now rising faster than the CPI. That’s not true for those who rent or wish to buy a house.