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Via SouthBayResearch.com,

The following is making the rounds, and it is technically true but factually false.

Start with this 1st part: 

Government hiring does NOT drive February hiring

School 'hiring' drives February hiring.  

And since most schools are public, it shows up in Gov't payrolls. 

But even calling it 'hiring' is a misnomer.  

This is back-to-school restoration of temporarily released school staff.  

These are the folks who drive buses, work in the cafeterias, maintain the grounds, provide after-school activities, etc etc.

Otherwise Gov't hiring is actually almost non-existent in February, except for Post Office hiring.

So technically it is true – Gov'ts drive February hiring because they include education payrolls – but linking them to DOGE misrepresents the situation. 

(Note: cuts to Dept of Education will have an impact, but they haven't really started yet.)

Now for the 2nd part: 

So…you are guessing?

DOGE has zero impact on the back-to-school hiring.  

Nada.

DOGE does have a near-term impact on Private Sector hiring.  

For example, eliminating $1B in contracts to vendors for the purpose of promoting DEI in classrooms: that's a job killer.  But these began AFTER the NFP survey kicked in.

And that timing factor comes into play with all of the cost-cutting by Trump.

"Uncertainty over federal funding" was non-existent on January 20th when Trump was inaugurated.  Nobody took his bluster seriously.  It became a reality as February progressed, but that also means the impact would fall outside of the February payroll survey period.

I don't disagree with the assessment that a big wave is coming.

I do disagree that it starts in February.