Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,
The latest New York Times / Siena College poll is a doozie. It has Trump in the lead. Let’s discuss why.
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Trump Slightly Ahead
The New York Times reports Trump and Harris Neck and Neck After Summer Upheaval, Times/Siena Poll Finds.
Support for Harris Stalls
Nate Cohen comments on the poll in his take New Poll Suggests Harris’s Support Has Stalled After a Euphoric August. That’s a free link.
The Mistakes of 2019 Could Cost Harris the Election
Nate Silver comments The Mistakes of 2019 Could Cost Harris the Election
The exceptions were:
NYT/Siena is our second-highest-rated pollster.
The poll has a large sample size: 1,695 likely voters.
The poll is very recent, fully post-Labor Day and having completed its field work on Friday.
The poll provides trendlines for comparison: the numbers are just a bit worse for Harris than the previous NYT/Siena national survey in July and considerably worse for her than a series of battleground state polls the Times conducted in early August.
The NYT/Siena poll tends to singularly drive the media conversation about the race, given the poll’s well-deserved reputation for accuracy and the Times’s outsized influence in the media.
The last paragraph is interesting. Trump makes the same mistake.
Trump needs to stick to the inflation, housing, immigration, and education indoctrination. He just can’t do it.
Harris Will Be More Like California
Harris is attempting to run a generic campaign, pretending to be middle, yet promising everything to everyone.
She want to restrict immigration while supporting it. She promises to allow more fracking while attempting to placate the Greens.
California is a disaster, but everything she espouses translates to “more California” solutions.
Trump’s idea to bring in revenue via tariffs, is economic madness. But Harris can’t easily attack that because she wants more tariffs and a crackdown on China as well.
Anybody but Biden
The big surge for Harris was nothing more than a grateful mirage of “Anybody but Biden”.
The huge initial lead of Trump was the same thing.
So we had unsustainable surges first in one direction, then the other.
Trump vs Harris
Biden is out to pasture. Had Democrats had an open convention It would have neither been Biden nor Harris.
From here on out, Harris more than Trump needs to prove she has moved toward the center. It will be difficult at best for her to pull that off.
August 24: Vote for Harris if You Want Radical Racial Indoctrination of Your Kids
August 16: Kamala Harris and Her Free Money, More Inflation Now Proposals (MIN)
More Inflation and More Indoctrination
That’s the winning message for Trump, if he can just stick with it.