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Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

In yet another example of Biden incompetence, the administration is setting up rules making it harder to deliver EV charging stations…

Politicizing EV Charging Stations

The Wall Street Journal comments on The Politicized EV Charger ‘Revolution’

Half of the money will be spent where no one can afford an EV.

NADA Market Beat 2023 Numbers

• Light Vehicle Sales: 15.46 million

• EV sales: 1.1 million (actually 1.2 million)

• EV sales 7.12 percent

There are about 292 million vehicles on the road according to Hedges. That number does include medium and heavy duty trucks.

Cars last about 13 years on average.

Edison Electric Institute Projections

The EEI Projects 26.4 Million Electric Vehicles Will Be on U.S. Roads in 2030.

• The number of EVs on U.S. roads is projected to reach 26.4 million in 2030, up from the projected 18.7 million in the 2018 report.

• The projected 26.4 million EVs will make up nearly 10 percent of the 259 million light-duty vehicles (cars and light trucks) expected to be on U.S. roads in 2030.

• Nearly 12.9 million charge ports will be needed to support the projected 26.4 million EVs that will be on U.S. roads in 2030. [Biden added 2 stations, perhaps 8-10 ports]

• Approximately 140,000 DC fast charging ports will be needed to support the level of EVs expected to be on U.S. roads in 2030.

• It took eight years to sell one million EVs and fewer than three years to sell the next million. EEI projects the next one million EVs will be sold by the end of 2022.

That last line is interesting. What happened to the rate of growth? In 2023 only 1.2 million sold.

The Math

There are about 1.7 million total EVs in the US out of 292 million vehicles. That is a penetration rate of 0.58 percent.

Let’s add another 1.1 million for 2024. That will bring the total to 2.8 million or about 0.95 percent.

If we just count light vehicles, by 2030 EVs will be about 10 percent, assuming the EEI projections hold, but they already missed 2023.

Only 6 Percent in the US want an EV for their Next Vehicle

Yesterday, I wrote Only 6 Percent in the US want an EV for their Next Vehicle

I should have said the rate of increase in demand is crashing. But it’s possible the statement is accurate as is. We will know in a year.

Eight Inconvenient EV Truths

EVs are more expensive

EVs are inconvenient for anyone who needs a public charger

EVs are inconvenient for anyone who drives long distances

Insurance costs are higher

Maintenance costs are higher

Repairs take longer and parts are in short supply

Minor accidents can be very costly requiring a new battery

Consumers don’t want the damn things and rightfully so

Several readers moaned about point 8.

Adoption Rate

One of my readers commented “1.2 million people bought one this year.” 

Another commented “Every EV sold is not an ICE sale.” Brilliant!

A third commented “If 1.2 million in one year is a close approximation of nothing, I’ll concede defeat.“

That comment is interesting because I never used the word “nothing” in my article. I did say consumers don’t want the damn things while pointing out 6 percent do. So “nothing” is quite a bit out of context.

I do not believe 6 percent is a lot, and if that’s accurate, it’s down from about 7.12 percent.

EVs sales are exploding! Growth is phenomenal! Hooray!

Note when numbers are tiny, always refer to percentage growth to make things look better.

1.2 million is a 250% growth rate according to a Hertz report (The irony is staggering). Will there be any growth in EV sales in 2024?

Assume 50 percent growth. That would put another 1.8 million EVs on the road making a total of about 1.2 percent. That’s greater than nothing (a word I did not use) by 1.2 percentage points.

What About Insurance?

Some readers objected to my point about insurance being higher. MoneyGeek reported the costs are about the same on average down from a 15 percent premium two years ago.

But it also says “Of the electric vehicle models that had corresponding combustion models, MoneyGeek found that most electric vehicles had higher insurance premium costs, ranging from 3% to 12% more expensive than their combustion counterparts. The only exception was the Ford Mustang Mach E, which is 18% cheaper to insure than its combustion counterpart, the Ford Mustang.”

I have no idea why Mustang would be different. Also, “Teslas are amongst the most costly electric vehicles to insure. MoneyGeek’s analysis found that four of the five electric cars with the highest insurance costs were Teslas.”

Most of the EVs on the road are Teslas.

Kelley Blue Book reports “Even though they don’t run on fossil fuels or require oil changes, and they have fewer moving parts to break, electric vehicles cost more to buy than their internal-combustion counterparts. Since they tend to cost more, they cost more to insure.“

What About Repairs?

Kelley Blue Book reports “Generally, higher-priced vehicles cost more to insure because they also cost more to repair or replace. Today’s electric vehicles also have fewer moving parts than conventional automobiles, but those parts can be pricey. If the battery pack is damaged, certain safety protocols are often necessary, adding more to the repair bill.”

The report adds, “There aren’t as many shops with technicians trained to fix electric vehicles versus traditional vehicles. That means those qualified facilities may charge more for repairs because of the specialized training required.”

The report was a reference to Hertz. I cannot verify the claim of Hertz. But to me it makes sense. If you need a repair, it’s likely to be more expensive.

Actions Speak Louder Than Projections

The adoption rate of EVs, actions by Hertz, actions by GM, action by Ford, and survey of intensions speak loud and clear.

That is despite massive incentives, subsidies, and outright coercion in California.

Hertz Is Selling 20,000 EVs Due to Lack of Customer Demand

On January 11, I noted Hertz Is Selling 20,000 EVs Due to Lack of Customer Demand

Do you believe actions or what you want to hear?

Front-End Collision Hoot of the Day

Reuters noted “Hertz even limited the torque and speed on the EVs and offered it to experienced users on the platform to make them easier to adapt after certain users had front-end collisions.“

Hertz has to limit the speed to prevent crashes. What a hoot.

EV Expectations and Repair Costs

Despite Huge Incentives, Supply of EVs on Dealer Lots Soars to 92 Days

On July 13, 2023, I noted Despite Huge Incentives, Supply of EVs on Dealer Lots Soars to 92 Days

Firm Answer to My July 13 Question

• October 24, 2023: GM Scraps EV Target, Ford Scales Back Electric Trucks, Musk Warns of Challenges

• To Shore Up Share Price, GM Decreases EV Investment in Favor of Buybacks

Both GM and Ford are scrapping targets.

Hertz planned to but 100,000 Teslas. Instead it is selling 20,000 of them.

Do you believe actions or what you want to believe?

How Fast is Eventually?

EVs are coming, by government coercion if necessary. I never said otherwise. But is government coercion the right way?

Eventually cars will get more miles per charge. Eventually, there will be more chargers. Eventually there will be more models to choose from.

It’s going to happen. The amusing thing is adoption is slower than I expected.

The ineptitude of this administration is staggering. The Inflation Reduction Act passed August 16, 2022. And there was fiscal stimulus in 2021. We have a whopping 2 public charging stations to show for it. What a hoot.

China has cheaper EVs but neither Biden nor Trump will allow them. We want adoption, but heaven forbid anything that most can afford. Nearly, everything this president does is inflationary. The border, EVs, and regulations in general are examples.

If Trump wins the election this year, he is certain to immediately roll back all of Biden’s energy regulations and mandates. 

California mandates 35% of new 2026 car models sold in California must be zero-emissions, climbing to 68% in 2030 and 100% in 2035.

Nationally, the 2030 projection was for 10 percent EVs by 2030. Will we even that that?

If Trump is president, this will get interesting.