It's been a few days since we had a breaking headline out of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks, and so Qatari decided to break the silence with another market test:
- *HAMAS RESPONSE IN NEGOTIATIONS IS `POSITIVE:' AL THANI
…which instantly led to another algo-driven dump in oil, just like last week when Al Jazeera reported, briefly, that Hamas had a 'positive response' to the Israeli truce terms… before deleting the tweet.
"Hamas says they have dealth with the proposal in a positive spirit to ensure a comprehensive ceasefire, end the aggression, lift the siege and exchange prisoners," according to news wires.
Additionally there's 'hope' on the northern border as well, at a moment Israel and Hezbollah's daily tit-for-tat strikes continue spiraling:
The dump quickly reversed, however, when algos read the rest of the statement, namely that not even Al Thani could give details on the framework of the deal at the time.
Still, with the oil shorting CTA army reactivated (despite being near 100% net short oil, CTAs somehow always find some more capacity to short oil some more), and even though the latest headline was not actual news, oil is now down 50 cents and sliding because apparently peace is about to break out in the Middle East any second.
And now, very quickly almost back to unchanged on the top side…
Meanwhile, as reported previously, ceasefire negotiation efforts have involved not only Qatar but Egypt too, with the latest days of most intense talks happening in Paris, involving CIA Director William Burns. Israel is coming under increased pressure to wrap up a deal, but which has brought deep splits in the governing coalition to the forefront. Per Israeli media on Tuesday:
"The proposed three-part deal, formulated during international intelligence chief meetings in Paris, includes a notable provision—Hamas's demand for the release of 150 Palestinian prisoners for each female Israeli soldier set free," Israeli media sources have noted of the ongoing talks.
Israel has sought the release of all prisoners held in Gaza by the end of a multi-phased plan, which could see a 2-month "pause" in fighting – though Netanyahu has still consistently expressed the goal of seeing Hamas totally eradicated.