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Amid a collapse in 'hard' economic data, 'soft' surveys from S&P Global was expected to see both Services and Manufacturing PMIs slide further in preliminary November data.

However, the data was more mixed with US Manufacturing falling more than expected to 49.4 – back into contraction – (vs 49.9 exp) from 50.0 in October. However, US Services unexpectedly rose from 50.6 to 50.8 (exp 50.3).

Source: Bloomberg

Commenting on the data, Siân Jones, Principal Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

The US data comes after yesterday's Euro area composite flash PMI increased by 0.6pt to 47.1, above consensus expectations, driven by a meaningful acceleration in Germany and the periphery, partially offset by a marginal decline in France. In the UK, the composite flash PMI improved meaningfully and entered expansionary territory at 50.1, above consensus expectations, on the back of a pickup in both sectors, with the services sector index entering positive territory at 50.5.

Goldman sees three main takeaways from today's data.

• First, we see a potential turning point in Euro area activity, with forward-looking indicators all improving in November, potentially setting a positive stage for the remainder of the year and the beginning of 2024. While the improvement seems to be broad-based, the upside surprises in the manufacturing sector in Germany and the Euro area as a whole may point to early signs of the sector's revival.

• Second, inflationary pressures, after moderating for some time, show signs of renewed intensification in the Euro area, as reflected by the output and input price components ticking up in November.

• Third, UK growth momentum was meaningfully better than last month, and is picking up across the board, with the headline and services indices coming in above 50. This, however, is now accompanied by an increase in cost pressures, with both the input and output price indices edging up in November.

Finally, back to the US, S&P Global found that US business uncertainty was also heightened among US firms, as expectations regarding the year-ahead outlook slipped to the weakest since July.