Blog

The trend for 'soft' survey data is very much not the friend of the 'soft-landing' or 'goldilocks' narrative peddlers as it slumps from extreme optimism to disappointed pessimism…

Source: Bloomberg

And today saw more of the same as the Chicago MNI tumbled further off the 'weird' spike in November, back into contraction…

Under the hood was ugly:

• New orders fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction

• Employment fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction

• Inventories fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction

• Supplier deliveries rose at a faster pace; signaling expansion

• Production fell and the direction reversed; signaling contraction

• Order backlogs fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction

Worse still, the prices paid index component continued to rise.

Slower growth, rising prices, and survey-based hope fading fast – not exactly 'election-winning' headlines.