ECONOMICS

Tomorrow morning years of politically-motivated upward drift in US economic "data" will get their come to Jesus moment of gravitational reacquaintance: at 8:30am ET on Thursday, alongside the final Q2 GDP print (expected unchanged at 2.2%) the BEA will also publish its once-every-five-years revision of GDP from Q1 2005 to Q1 2023, which according to Morgan Stanley will lead to a sharp downward revision, of as much as 80bps from Q2 GDP, and could potentially even indicate economic (more…)

One month ago we warned that the toxic cocktail of Volcker-esque rates which have pushed the average credit card APR to a nosebleeding 21%…

… and surging credit card balances would lead to a catastrophic surge in consumer (and corporate) defaults (see "Credit Card Balances Hit Record Above $1 Trillion, Suffer "Pronounced Worsening" Amid Surge In New Delinquencies") it is now Goldman's turn.

As Goldman analyst Ryan Nash writes in his latest note, (more…)

Thanks to a large downward revision for July (from -5.2% MoM to -5.6% MoM – the largest drop since the COVID lockdowns), preliminary August durable goods orders rose a marginal 0.2% MoM (vs -0.5% MoM exp).

Source: Bloomberg

Looking under the covers, we find more noise in this time series with orders ex-transports rose 0.4% MoM (+0.2% MoM exp), thanks to a big downward revision in July (+0.4% to +0.1%).

Additionally, we note that the value of core capital goods orders, (more…)