ECONOMICS

After July's 2.1% MoM plunge, US Factory Orders rebounded in August (+1.2% MoM vs +0.3% exp), which managed to pull the year-over-year change in orders into the green (+0.5% YoY)…

Source: Bloomberg

Core factory orders rose even more impressively, jumping 1.4% MoM (vs just +0.2% MoM exp). That's the biggest MoM jump since Jan 2022, but left core factory orders down 0.9% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

Excluding Defense, orders grew at only 0.8% MoM as (more…)

Despite the plunge in 'hard' data in September, the Manufacturing PMI rose to six-month highs (but still sub-50). However, more notably,  the Services PMI tumbled to 50.1 (barely in expansion), its lowest level since January.

Source: Bloomberg

ISM Services – for once – agreed with PMI Services, sliding to 53.6…

Source: Bloomberg

…with new orders plunging and employment tumbling and prices sticky…

Source: Bloomberg

As (more…)

Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,

We keep hearing about a “soft landing.” According to government officials, central bankers, and mainstream financial media pundits, the US economy has dodged a recession.

So why are recession warning signs still flashing?

Most major financial institutions and high-profile economists have abandoned or significantly downgraded their recession projections. Those that still still forecast an economic downturn predict it (more…)