ECONOMICS

One month ago we warned that the toxic cocktail of Volcker-esque rates which have pushed the average credit card APR to a nosebleeding 21%…

… and surging credit card balances would lead to a catastrophic surge in consumer (and corporate) defaults (see "Credit Card Balances Hit Record Above $1 Trillion, Suffer "Pronounced Worsening" Amid Surge In New Delinquencies") it is now Goldman's turn.

As Goldman analyst Ryan Nash writes in his latest note, (more…)

Thanks to a large downward revision for July (from -5.2% MoM to -5.6% MoM – the largest drop since the COVID lockdowns), preliminary August durable goods orders rose a marginal 0.2% MoM (vs -0.5% MoM exp).

Source: Bloomberg

Looking under the covers, we find more noise in this time series with orders ex-transports rose 0.4% MoM (+0.2% MoM exp), thanks to a big downward revision in July (+0.4% to +0.1%).

Additionally, we note that the value of core capital goods orders, (more…)

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Here are some interesting demographic charts that show why finding skilled workers is problematic…

Population data via a BLS download, chart by Mish.

The Civilian Noninstitutional Population consists of those age 16 and older who are not inmates and are not in the military.

The total population change is 7.58 million of which a whopping 4.52 million are in demographic age group 65 and older.

Civilian Noninstitutional (more…)