ECONOMICS

Another day, another set of mixed messaging from macro (soft survey) data…

On the bright side, MNI's Chicago Manufacturing PMI surged higher this morning as March data printed 47.6 (above expectations but still in contraction <50) – the highest since December 2023.

On the not so bright side, The Dallas Fed Manufacturing PMI survey tumbled to -16.3 (well below expectations) – the lowest since July 2024.

It gets better though…

While Chicago's data shows Prices Paid slowing, New Orders falling, and Inventories falling.

Dallas' data showed Prices Paid higher, New Orders higher, and Inventories rising (more…)

Authored by Peter Earle via TheDailyEconomy.org,

As we mark five years since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, many headlines trumpet the resilience of the US economy: unemployment is low, GDP has returned to growth, and markets have rebounded. But beneath the surface-level indicators lies a more complicated and sobering picture. 

A close examination of key economic metrics reveals that in several important areas, the US economy has not fully recovered from the effects of both the (more…)

While it is as stale as 3 month old milk, and therefor completely useless especially ahead of tomorrow's personal income/core PCE report, moments ago the BLS reported its 2nd revision to Q4 GDP which was revised up to 2.4% compared to the second est. of 2.3%, and above the median consensus of 2.3% (+2.2% to +2.6%) from 55 economists. The final Q4 print was down from 3.1% in Q3. The increase, however, wasn't due to stronger consumption (this declined from 4.2% to 4.0%, below the 4.2% (more…)