ECONOMICS

Well, no one saw that coming…

The New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey for January crashed from -14.5 to -43.7 – the worst print in the survey's history outside of the COVID lockdowns…

Source: Bloomberg

The -43.7 print was a stunning 10 standard deviations below expectations of a bounce to -5.0…

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, it was a bloodbath. New orders slumped more than 38 points to minus 49.4, the weakest since April (more…)

While most western markets are at or near all time highs (yes, that includes most European bourses as well), what was once the darling of the "smart money" crowd, China, has been quietly swept away from all polite markets conversation, and for good reason: China's stock market is not only down almost 50% from its Feb 2021 high, but also at the lowest level in 5 years and practically unchanged for the past decade!

Alas, with China's debt at record highs, over (more…)

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Where is the global deflator expansive enough to replace China's one-off deflation of global inflationary forces? There isn't one.

In broad brush, central banks got away with the illusion of permanently low inflation even as they pumped trillions in new currency into the global economy for one reason: China. It is useful to think of China in the early-to-mid 1990s as a system of vast, interconnected, untapped pools of: (more…)