Following August's bigger than expected jump (driven by surging energy prices and healthcare methodology changes)., September's CPI was expected to slow (+0.3% MoM) with the YoY pace inching back lower (from 3.7% to 3.6%) after rebounding for two straight months.
However, headline CPI came in modestly hot at +0.4%, with YoY at 3.7% – that is thed 3rd monthly rebound in a row.
Source: Bloomberg
Core CPI rose 0.3% MoM, with YoY sliding to +4.1% YoY (as expected)... it still hasnt been below 4.00% since May 2021….
Source: Bloomberg
Food and Commodities contribution to YoY CPI slowed while Services increased…
Goods inflation dipped back to unchanged YoY and Services CPI slowed to +5.7%…
Services stands out on A MoM basis…
Under the hood, gasoline continues to rise and used car prices drop…
Gasoline prices continue to rise…
Shelter costs are slowing…
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Rent inflation 7.41%, down from 7.76% in August and the lowest since Sept 2022
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Shelter inflation 7.15%, down from 7.27% in August and the lowest since Nov 2022
Turning from the cost of things to the ability to pay, "real" wages contracted 0.1% YoY (after 3 months positive)…
This is not the soft-landing cruise lower in inflation that the market (and The Fed) was hoping for…
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