ECONOMICS

By Peter Earle of the American Institute of Economic Research

Since the start of 2024, numerous well-known restaurant chains have announced sizable closures and incrementally more drastic restructuring efforts.

TGI Fridays has closed numerous locations across the US and sold eight corporate-owned locations to strengthen their franchise model and close underperforming stores. Denny’s shut down 57 restaurants in 2023 and announced additional closures for 2024 due to inflationary (more…)

Via The American Institute for Economic Research,

In this morning’s US Bureau of Labor Statistics data release, the U-3 unemployment rate increased 4.1 percent in June 2024, rising by one-tenth of a percentage point above the forecast rate. The U-3 rate measures the percentage of the civilian labor force that is jobless, actively seeking work, and available to work, excluding discouraged workers and the underemployed. 

This uptick triggers the Sahm Rule, a real-time (more…)

US payrolls is expected to once again in June to 190k from 272k in May and after a cycle low 165K in April. Most economic indicators in the past month indicated labor market deterioration: jobless claims that corresponded with the BLS' survey window for the jobs report worsened. ADP’s gauge of payrolls came in blow consensus, as wage metrics fell and analysts noted that forward looking gauges of pay compensation suggest wage growth will slow even more ahead. Challenger job cuts jumped in (more…)