ECONOMICS

When the US economy crashed in a deflationary vortex during the global financial crisis (and just after the time giant yen carry trade imploded), it seemed to many that another great Depression was assured. However, after a brief period of pain, both the US and the world economy staged a remarkable rebound which, we learned after the fact, was thanks to a unprecedented releveraging undertaken by China, which issued trillions in new debt and used the proceeds to not only build countless ghost (more…)

After this week's 'soft' survey data signaled serious ugliness in the US manufacturing economy…

Source: Bloomberg

…this morning we get 'hard' data confirmation as US Factory Orders plunged 3.3% MoM in June (the biggest MoM drop since COVID lockdowns), dragging orders down 3.6% YoY (also the worst since COVID lockdowns)…

Source: Bloomberg

The final durable goods orders print was worse than the initial – down a shocking 6.7% (more…)

The start of the third quarter saw a deterioration in business conditions at US manufacturers as new orders declined for the first time in three months, according to S&P Global.

This makes sense as we have seen 'hard' US macro data serially disappoint for three months.

• S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI falls to 49.6 in July, dropping into contraction for the first time since Dec 2023.

• ISM Manufacturing PMI plunged to 46.8 (48.8 exp) – weakest since Nov 2023 (more…)