ECONOMICS

After its large (2.3% MoM) jump in June, US factory orders were expected to see a major decline in July (down 2.5% MoM)> The decline was sizable – down 2.1% MoM – but less than expected.

Source: Bloomberg

That is still the biggest MoM drop since Nov '22 and left the YoY orders 0.7% lower.

Transportation was clearly a drag since Core Factory orders rose 0.8% MoM – best since January – well above expectations…

Source: Bloomberg

Overall Durable (more…)

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Not exactly timely, Bloomberg notes “The widening gap between gross domestic income and gross domestic product is a worrying signal.”

GDP vs GDI Chart Notes

• Real means inflation adjusted

• GDP is Gross Domestic Product

• GDI is Gross Domestic Income

• Real Final Sales is the bottom line assessment of GDP. It excludes inventories which net to zero over time.

GDI was negative for two consecutive quarters (more…)

Last week, we wrote that the bursting of the AirBnB bubble will also pop the broader housing bubble, which has shown remarkable resilience in the face of the highest interest rates since Volcker (although today's ominous tumble in homebuilder stocks is certainly a concern), largely the result of a staggering divergence between effective mortgage rates (since almost everyone refinanced into a 30Y mortgage when rates were at record lows a few years back and is locked into a nice, low rate (more…)