Blog

While hard data continues to improve, 'soft' data hit a new six-month low yesterday as more regional Fed surveys signaled trouble ahead (because of tariffs)…

Source: Bloomberg

And so all eyes are on the premier 'soft' data today as Manufacturing PMIs drop their final print for March.

The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI improved intra-month, rising from a  flash print of 49.8 (contraction) to a final print of 50.2 (expansion), but that was still well down from February's 52.7.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI weakened notably from 50.3 to 49.0 (below the 49.5 expectation) – the lowest since November.

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood it was even more messy…

…with Prices Paid soaring to its highest since June 2022 and New Orders & Employment tumbling…

Source: Bloomberg

Inventories surged as manufacturers front-run the 'Liberation Day' headlines…

As Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, notes:

Trump-based optimism is fading?

And of course, it's all about tariff terror…

So, both Services PMIs are in expansion (above 50) and Manufacturing is mixed (50.2 vs 49.0) – take your pick on 'recession' talk.